Strategic Bitcoin Stockpiles, or Lack Thereof

Summertime is never dull for Bitcoin, and July was no exception. The price rollercoaster took its toll on those who tried to time the market or lacked conviction.

Lettuce-Hands: The German Government Pushed Down Price – But Not For Long

Source: Bloomberg 2024

The first week of the month saw Bitcoin drop from USD $61,000 to USD $55,600, down -8.9% as the German government continued its sale of nearly 50,000 BTC that it had seized from the illegal movie streaming site Movie2k. It is baffling why anyone would willingly dump such a significant position (roughly USD $2.89 billion) in Bitcoin given its scarcity and asymmetric return profile. The German government was reportedly concerned about potential value loss, which they certainly experienced by netting an average price of USD $57,900 right before it rocketed back up to an intra-day high of USD $70,000 on July 29th. Diamond hands happily bought up the supply with US ETFs gaining net inflows more than this amount over the period. All we can do is shake our heads and hope that regret and embarrassment will motivate government officials to do more research in the future. Maybe they should subscribe to this newsletter?

So, what of other governments with Bitcoin holdings? What of the USA? July saw great excitement as the annual Bitcoin mega-conference was held in Nashville, TN. Headlining speakers included Michael Saylor, Senators Cynthia Lummis and Tim Scott, and 2024 Presidential candidates RFK Jr. and Donald Trump. I highly recommend watching some of these speeches on YouTube as they provide a good perspective on where the USA stands on Bitcoin and what could happen if Trump wins the election in November. It was pretty clear that RFK Jr. really “gets it” as he spoke clearly on subjects like inflation and freedom and the need for the US to develop a Bitcoin reserve. He pledged that if elected he would buy 500 BTC each day until the government built a reserve of 4 million. This pledge to develop a strategic reserve was echoed by Donald Trump, who pledged to use the existing 200,000 BTC held by the US government as the beginnings of a “strategic bitcoin stockpile”. Similar to the Germans, the US owns a tall stack thanks to law enforcement actions; in their case, these coins date back to the dark web trading site called Silk Road. As Donald Trump is currently favoured to win the November election, this is very exciting for Bitcoiners and has rallied the community to support his candidacy.

Credit should be given to conference organizers at Bitcoin Magazine for reaching out to Kamala Harris’s campaign to offer her a speaking slot. She declined to participate, once again emphasizing the hostility toward Bitcoin that we have seen from the Biden Administration and many Democrats over the past few years. Why they would ignore the votes of a wealthy (and becoming ever wealthier) community of Bitcoiners is hard to understand. As we mentioned last month, it would seem obvious that investors who own Bitcoin would vote for a pro-Bitcoin candidate, and everyone else is indifferent. Is there a constituency that is anti-Bitcoin? We’re skeptical.

We really don’t want to delve into politics, especially US politics, but this news should be considered by investors as the next few months play out. The clear difference between the parties on Bitcoin could influence price action between now and November and is a story we will be following closely.

We are firmly in the camp that every government will eventually have a Bitcoin reserve, just as they all have gold reserves today. We tend to agree with the argument that the first country to print money to buy Bitcoin will be at a significant advantage, and those who do will find themselves with a very useful tool for dealing with unsustainable national debt levels, which have become a problem for the developed world since the excessive money printing of the pandemic.

Just as Bitcoin is for everyone, and adding Bitcoin to any portfolio will, over the long term, improve its risk-adjusted return, it is also the case that adding Bitcoin to a nation’s reserve will, over time, generate prosperity. Currently, this concept is so novel that the only country making a concerted effort is El Salvador, but we expect this line of thinking to spread globally if the US takes steps in this direction. There is a game theory element to this: everyone who adopts this strategy will benefit, but the first movers will have an advantage.

The same is true for individuals and advisors who are currently considering Bitcoin in their strategic asset allocations. We are still very early in the process of Bitcoin adoption, as a portfolio asset, as a store of value, and as a medium of exchange. But it’s worth remembering that as philosophers Ferris Bueller and Victor Hugo once said, “life moves pretty fast,” and “nothing can stop an idea whose time has come.”

Source: Blackrock 2024

Best of luck and we hope you enjoy the rest of summer.

– Elliot Johnson CIO, COO Evolve ETFs

Source: Shutterstock Credit: Godlikeart

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with exchange traded mutual funds (ETFs) and mutual funds. Please read the prospectus before investing. ETFs and mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. There are risks involved with investing in ETFs and mutual funds. Please read the prospectus for a complete description of risks relevant to the ETF and mutual fund. Investors may incur customary brokerage commissions in buying or selling ETF and mutual fund units. This communication is intended for informational purposes only and is not, and should not be construed as, investment and/or tax advice to any individual.
Certain statements contained in this documentation constitute forward-looking information within the meaning of Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking information may relate to a future outlook and anticipated distributions, events or results and may include statements regarding future financial performance. In some cases, forward-looking information can be identified by terms such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “believe”, “intend” or other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Actual results may vary from such forward-looking information. Evolve undertakes no obligation to update publicly or otherwise revise any forward-looking statement whether as a result of new information, future events or other such factors which affect this information, except as required by law.

Tags Bitcoin  bitcoin etf  ebit etf  Evolve ETFs  Spot Bitcoin