Hi everyone – welcome back to Evolve’s Bitcoin Monthly newsletter. We hope our views on Bitcoin adoption and market conditions prove useful for investors considering Bitcoin as an investment, or for those managing an existing Bitcoin position.
After April’s 13.57% surge¹, May was the digestive period the market needed. Bitcoin opened the month near $77,000 and closed near $73,750, a pullback of roughly 4.5% that ended a two-month winning streak.² The path was choppy: an early-May push above $81,000 on the day the CLARITY Act cleared Senate Banking, a steady grind lower through the back half of the month, and a low near $72,500 in the final week. The headline reads “Bitcoin’s worst month of 2026” – but the structural inputs all moved in the right direction. May was a stress test, and in our view, the asset class passed.
Our macro framework has not changed: governments continue to overspend, adoption continues to broaden, and Bitcoin-backed products are finding their way into traditional finance. Canada’s Spring Economic Update, released May 1, pegged the federal deficit at $66.9 billion for 2025–26 – still 2.1% of GDP, and a reminder that fiscal dominance is not a one-country story.³ What is changing is the institutional architecture: the U.S. now has a confirmed Fed Chair with personal conviction in this asset class, a market-structure bill that has cleared its first Senate hurdle, and an ETF complex that just absorbed its largest monthly outflow of the cycle without breaking.
The First Real ETF Stress Test
The headline number is sobering. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.97 billion in net outflows in May – the largest monthly outflow of 2026 and the worst figure since November 2025. ⁴ A ten-day consecutive outflow streak – the longest on record – saw approximately $2.97 billion withdrawn, with single-day exit at a peak of $733 million on May 27. ⁴ BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) – by far the largest spot Bitcoin ETF in the world – recorded a $528 million single-day outflow on May 28, the second-largest in the fund’s history.⁵
We think about this two ways.
First, the price reaction. Despite a significant wall of selling, Bitcoin traded in a relatively tight range all month and finished meaningfully lower — though the magnitude of the decline was more contained than many might have expected. A similar redemption episode a year ago would likely have produced a sharper move. Spot demand — corporate treasuries, sovereign accounts, self-custody buyers — seemed to absorb the ETF supply without a disorderly break, a signal, in our view, of market maturation. The ETF wrapper may now function as a structural source of demand; it is also, by construction, a structural source of supply when conditions warrant. Both directions are consistent with a functioning two-way market.
Second, the participant mix. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has made the point repeatedly: institutions willing to allocate to a non-consensus asset like Bitcoin tend to be exceptionally high-conviction, and their capital is “very sticky.”⁶ The May outflows look like tactical rotation tied to rising Treasury yields, a stronger dollar, and profit-taking after April’s rally – not abandonment of the thesis.
Washington Delivers
Two structural wins this month – both of which we flagged as in motion in April.
On May 13, the U.S. Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Chair of the Federal Reserve in a 54–45 vote – the narrowest margin in modern Fed history.⁷ Only one Democrat, Pennsylvania’s John Fetterman, crossed the aisle. Warsh’s first FOMC meeting is scheduled for June 16–17. We said in April that the signal was unmistakable – the person about to lead the world’s most powerful central bank has personal Bitcoin conviction, has called for “regime change” in Fed communications, and has previously framed Bitcoin as comparable to gold in its potential role as a store of value. That signal is now reality, and it arrives precisely as fiscal dominance forces central banks into harder choices about how aggressively to lean against rising government debt costs.
On May 14, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act – the CLARITY Act – cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a 15–9 vote.⁸ Two Democrats, Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, crossed the aisle, building on the bipartisan momentum that produced the largest crypto vote in House history back in April. The bill establishes a three-category framework: digital commodities under CFTC jurisdiction, investment-contract assets under SEC oversight, and payment stablecoins under banking regulators consistent with the GENIUS Act baseline. Bitcoin briefly traded above $81,900 on the news before retracing with the broader risk-off move.⁸ The bill still needs to clear the Senate floor and be reconciled with the House version, but the committee vote pushed the ceiling on bipartisan crypto legislation higher than it has ever been.
For Canadian investors, the U.S. policy backdrop matters because it sets the global tone. Regulatory clarity south of the border draws institutional capital off the sidelines, deepens the liquidity that underpins Bitcoin’s price, and shifts the burden of proof for trustees, pension boards, and wealth managers everywhere – including here.
Geopolitics Still in Play
The Strait of Hormuz situation we covered in April remains the live macro tail risk. The U.S. naval blockade of Iran that began April 13 continued through May, with U.S. Central Command reporting that by May 22 it had turned away 94 vessels, leaving roughly 31 tankers carrying about 53 million barrels of Iranian oil stuck in the Gulf.⁹ Iran’s losses from blocked oil revenue, by Pentagon estimates, exceeded US$4.8 billion in the first two and a half weeks alone.
On May 29, President Trump posted on Truth Social that he was meeting in the “Situation Room” to make a “final determination” on the Iran peace deal, and signalled the blockade would be lifted.¹⁰ Markets reacted immediately – oil dropped more than 2%, U.S. equities turned positive, and Bitcoin rallied roughly $1,000 off the morning’s lows. But as of month-end the situation is best described as a hopeful inflection, not a resolution. The peace deal is not signed, the blockade has not been formally rescinded, and the strait remains the world’s most important energy chokepoint. We are watching it closely into June.
This is exactly the kind of macro environment in which Bitcoin’s digital-gold properties matter. Gold and Bitcoin are complementary diversifiers in a fiat-debasement world, not competitors – a point we have made consistently, and one the rotation flows continue to validate.
Under the Hood
If you only looked at price and ETF flows, May looked like a soft month. The on-chain data tells a different story.
Long-term holders now control approximately 78.3% of circulating Bitcoin supply – a record share – and exchange reserves have fallen toward multi-year lows around 2.2–3 million BTC, levels not seen since 2017–2018.¹¹ Coins are not moving back to exchanges to be sold; they are sitting in cold storage, ETF baskets, and corporate balance sheets.
Valuation metrics remain cool. The MVRV Z-score sat near 1 through mid-May, a neutral-to-cooling reading.¹¹ Prior cycle tops have printed above 6. By this measure, Bitcoin is nowhere near classic euphoria – a useful counterpoint to the “worst month of 2026” headlines.
Corporate accumulation is moderating, not reversing. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) now holds 843,738 BTC at an average cost basis of $75,700¹², but its May 4–10 purchase of just 535 BTC¹³ was its smallest weekly buy of 2026, and on May 5 Michael Saylor publicly opened the door to selling for the first time since December 2022.¹⁴ We read this as a structural evolution rather than a thesis change. Strategy is becoming a more actively managed Bitcoin-anchored vehicle – retiring debt at a discount, parking idle capital in short-duration Treasuries when accumulation conditions are not ideal. The marginal corporate buyer is slowing; in its place, ETF baskets, sovereign treasuries, and traditional banks are filling the demand curve. That is what a maturing buyer base looks like.
One more data point worth flagging: on May 27, SoFi Technologies became the first U.S. national bank to roll out its own dollar-backed stablecoin, SoFiUSD, directly to its 15 million retail banking customers on a public blockchain.¹⁵ That is the third leg of our thesis – Bitcoin-adjacent products migrating into traditional finance – playing out in real time.
Looking Ahead
May was the kind of month every asset class needs occasionally. Bitcoin gave back some of April’s gain, the ETF complex absorbed its largest outflow of the cycle without breaking, and the structural inputs – Fed leadership, regulatory clarity, on-chain tightness – moved further in our favour.
June brings two important macro prints: Chair Warsh’s first FOMC on June 16–17, and the next stage of the CLARITY Act on the Senate floor. Both have the potential to be catalytic. The Strait of Hormuz situation remains an open file we will be watching closely. And the four-year cycle conversation – much discussed entering 2026 – is, for now, settling into a different rhythm: shallower drawdowns, faster recoveries, stickier holders, and structural buyers who absorb selling that prior cycles would have amplified.
The institutions are still arriving, just not in a straight line. We remain constructive Bitcoin investors and look forward to what June brings.
Sources
¹ Source: Bloomberg, CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate, as at April 30, 2026.
² CoinDesk, “Bitcoin price news: BTC set to close month of May with losses,” May 29, 2026.
³ Government of Canada, “Spring Economic Update 2026 – Economic and fiscal overview.”
⁵ SpotedCrypto, “BlackRock IBIT Bitcoin ETF Outflows May 2026: Near-Record Day,” May 28, 2026.
⁷ CNBC, “Kevin Warsh wins Senate confirmation as the next Federal Reserve chair,” May 13, 2026.
⁹ United Against Nuclear Iran, “Iran War Shipping Update,” May 11, 2026.
¹⁰ CoinDesk live blog citing Truth Social post by President Trump, May 29, 2026.
¹¹ On-chain data sourced from Glassnode and CryptoQuant, May 2026.
¹⁴ CoinDesk, “Strategy weighs selling bitcoin to fund dividends amid Q1 net loss,” May 5, 2026.
¹⁵ CoinDesk, “SoFi brings bank-issued stablecoin to 15 million users in crypto push,” May 27, 2026.
Disclaimer
Published June 8, 2026.
Evolve Funds Group Inc. is the investment fund manager and portfolio manager. The Evolve Bitcoin ETF (“EBIT”) is offered by Evolve Funds Group Inc., and distributed through authorized dealers.
The information contained herein is a general description and is not intended to be specific investment advice to any particular investor nor intended to be investment or tax advice. You should not act or rely on the information contained herein without seeking the advice of an appropriate professional advisor. The information contained herein is intended for informational purposes as a summary only, does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a legally binding obligation, it is qualified entirely by, and should be read in conjunction with, the more detailed information appearing in the prospectuses found on the Evolve Funds Group Inc website at https://evolveetfs.com/.
The unpredictable nature of the cryptoassets can lead to loss of funds.
Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with exchange traded funds (ETFs). Please read the prospectus before investing. ETFs are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.
Certain statements contained herein are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” or “estimate,” or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Evolve Funds Group Inc. and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Evolve Funds Group Inc. nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Certain information contained in this document is obtained from third parties. Evolve Funds Group Inc. believes such information to be accurate and reliable as of the date hereof, however, we cannot guarantee that it is accurate or complete or current at all times. The information provided is subject to change without notice.
