Hi everyone – welcome back to Evolve’s Bitcoin Monthly newsletter. We hope our views on Bitcoin adoption and market conditions prove useful for investors considering Bitcoin as an investment, or for those managing an existing Bitcoin position.
Bitcoin finished April near $76,300, up 11.87% from its opening around $68,400 – its best monthly performance since April 2025.¹ The journey was anything but smooth. The month began in the shadow of geopolitical crisis, with Bitcoin dipping below $71,000 on April 13 when ceasefire talks collapsed and the U.S. blockaded the Strait of Hormuz. From there, a powerful rally carried the price to highs near $79,000 by late April, fuelled by a wave of ETF inflows and easing tensions, before a modest pullback into month-end. The message: consolidation is over, and the market has found its footing.
Our macro assumptions haven’t changed: governments continue to overspend, adoption continues to broaden, and Bitcoin-backed products are finding their way into traditional finance. What has changed is the quality of the evidence. April delivered several developments that, in our view, accelerate the direction of travel.
Geopolitics Puts Bitcoin to the Test
The biggest macro story this month came from the Strait of Hormuz – the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily. In late March, Iran’s parliament formalized a toll system requiring vessels to pay for safe passage, with reports that Bitcoin and stablecoins are among the accepted payment methods.² Then, on April 13, ceasefire talks between the U.S. and Iran collapsed, and President Trump ordered a blockade of the strait.³
Bitcoin’s reaction told an important story. The price dipped to roughly $70,700 on the Sunday news, then snapped back above $74,000 within days as short sellers were forced to cover and ETF inflows resumed.⁴ Gold, meanwhile, climbed to approximately $4,800 per ounce amid safe-haven demand.⁵ Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer has observed that flows have been rotating between gold and Bitcoin this cycle – when Bitcoin peaked in October 2025, capital shifted to gold; now, as gold loses momentum, it appears to be rotating back.⁶ The two assets are increasingly complementary in a diversified portfolio, and that’s exactly what we’ve been saying for years.
What matters most is the resilience. In our view, five years ago a geopolitical shock of this magnitude would have sent Bitcoin down 20–30%. Today it absorbed the news and recovered in days. That’s what institutional participation and a maturing market structure look like in practice.
Morgan Stanley Enters the Chat
On April 8, Morgan Stanley launched the Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust (MSBT) on NYSE Arca – becoming the first major U.S. bank to issue a spot Bitcoin ETF under its own name.⁷ The fund drew roughly $34 million on its first day and crossed $100 million within its first week.⁸,⁹
This is a landmark moment for the asset class. Morgan Stanley’s entry means the largest U.S. wealth management platform – overseeing trillions in client assets – now has a direct Bitcoin product to offer its financial advisors and their clients. The competitive field is deepening, and more competition means more legitimacy, more distribution channels, and more capital flowing into Bitcoin. By mid-April, cumulative U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows since launch had reached approximately $57 billion, with total assets near $94 billion.¹⁰
In our December 2025 newsletter, we wrote that the career risk around Bitcoin had flipped: five years ago, there was career risk in talking about Bitcoin in an institutional setting; today, there is career risk in ignoring it. Morgan Stanley just proved the point.
Washington Is Moving
Two regulatory developments stand out this month. First, the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act – commonly called the CLARITY Act – continues to advance through Congress, though not without friction. The bill passed the House with a 294–134 bipartisan vote, one of the largest congressional margins recorded on crypto legislation.¹¹ The bill has earned endorsements from the SEC Chair, the Treasury Secretary, and over 120 industry participants who signed a joint letter urging the Senate to act.¹²,¹³ However, the Senate Banking Committee markup was delayed after Senator Thom Tillis requested more time to resolve stablecoin yield provisions.¹⁴ The bill now faces a narrowing window – Senator Bernie Moreno warned it must clear Congress by end of May or risk being shelved indefinitely. ¹⁴ We remain optimistic: the direction of travel is toward clarity, even if the path is slower than markets would like.
Second, Kevin Warsh – President Trump’s nominee to chair the Federal Reserve – filed his financial disclosure on April 14, revealing investments in more than 20 crypto-related entities, including Polymarket, Solana-related ventures, and blockchain infrastructure projects.¹⁵,¹⁶ At his Senate confirmation hearing on April 21, Warsh vowed to be “an independent actor” and called for “regime change” at the Fed, signalling a willingness to rethink forward guidance and the central bank’s communication framework.¹⁷ On April 29, the Senate Banking Committee voted 13–11 along party lines to advance his nomination to the full Senate.¹⁸ The signal is unmistakable: the person set to lead the world’s most powerful central bank has personal conviction in this asset class, and has previously described Bitcoin as comparable to gold in its potential role as a store of value.
These are structural tailwinds, not headlines that fade. Regulatory clarity and institutional legitimacy create the conditions for the next wave of capital to enter Bitcoin.
Under the Hood
The on-chain data continues to paint a picture of accumulation and supply tightness. Long-term holders now control an estimated 78–80% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply – near cycle highs. Exchange reserves keep declining, with approximately 23,500 BTC leaving exchanges in the most recent seven-day period, a sign that coins are moving to self-custody, ETFs, and corporate treasuries. Bitcoin’s hashrate sits near a 30-day average of approximately 975 exahashes per second, reflecting robust network security and miner commitment. The MVRV ratio sits at a neutral 1.37–1.41, suggesting the market is neither overheated nor deeply undervalued, and the realized price floor around $54,000–$62,000 provides strong structural support.¹⁹
Fidelity Digital Assets published a notable report in late March titled “Getting Off Zero: Evaluating Bitcoin in 2026.” The core argument is that the burden of proof has flipped: a zero allocation to Bitcoin now requires justification. Their analysis shows that a 1–3% allocation to Bitcoin yields the largest incremental improvement in returns and risk-adjusted metrics for a traditional 60/40 portfolio. Bitcoin’s 10-year compound annual growth rate leads all major asset classes, and its correlation with M2 money supply sits at r² = 0.87 – reinforcing its role as a liquidity-sensitive store of value.²⁰
Looking Ahead
April was a month that rewarded patience. Bitcoin opened near $68,400 and closed near $76,300, a gain of 11.87% that ranks among its strongest monthly performances in recent memory.¹ Along the way it weathered a geopolitical crisis, absorbed a major new institutional entrant, and saw approximately $2 billion in net ETF inflows.²¹ The Strait of Hormuz remains a live situation, the CLARITY Act still needs to clear the Senate, and Warsh’s full Senate confirmation vote lies ahead – but the trajectory on each front favours Bitcoin.
The institutions are arriving not despite the volatility, but through it. A major U.S. bank now issues its own Bitcoin ETF. ⁷ The CLARITY Act passed the House with broad bipartisan support. ¹¹ The incoming Fed Chair’s financial disclosures revealed he has skin in the game.¹⁶ And conviction among long-term holders appears intact.
The direction of travel hasn’t changed – it’s accelerated. We remain constructive and look forward to what May brings.
Sources
¹ Bitbo / CoinGlass, “Bitcoin Posts Best Monthly Gain in a Year in April,” May 2026. bitbo.io
² Fortune, “Iran is demanding tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pay tolls in crypto: What we know so far,” April 10, 2026. fortune.com
³ CNBC, “U.S. begins blockade in Strait of Hormuz; Trump warns Iran ‘attack ships’ to stay away,” April 13, 2026. cnbc.com
⁴ CryptoTimes, “Relief Rally: Bitcoin Jumps 5% to Four-Week High After Iran Seeks US Deal,” April 14, 2026. cryptotimes.io
⁵ Fortune, “Current price of gold: April 14, 2026,” April 14, 2026. fortune.com
⁶ CoinDesk, “Fidelity Digital Assets Strategist Sees Resilient Markets Despite Geopolitical Turbulence,” April 7, 2026. coindesk.com
⁷ Morgan Stanley Press Release, “MSIM Enters Digital Investments Universe With Launch of Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust,” April 8, 2026. morganstanley.com
⁸ Unchained, “Morgan Stanley’s MSBT Debuts as the Cheapest Spot Bitcoin ETF, Logs $34 Million on Day One,” April 9, 2026. unchainedcrypto.com
⁹ CoinDesk, “Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin ETF Reaches $100M in First Week, Marking the Bank’s Strongest Launch,” April 16, 2026. coindesk.com
¹⁰ Invezz / CoinGlass, “Bitcoin Pulls Back After $76K Test as ETF Flows Turn Volatile,” April 15, 2026. invezz.com
¹¹ U.S. House of Representatives, H.R.3633 – Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, passed July 17, 2025 (294–134). congress.gov
¹² CryptoTimes, “SEC Chair Backs Fast-Track Approval of CLARITY Act Amid Senate Push,” April 10, 2026. cryptotimes.io
¹³ 24/7 Wall St., “XRP Price News: 120 Crypto Firms Just Told the Senate to Pass the CLARITY Act,” April 25, 2026. 247wallst.com
¹⁴ CryptoTimes, “Clarity Act Stuck in Senate as Clock Ticks on 2026 Crypto Regulation,” April 28, 2026. cryptotimes.io
¹⁵ CNBC, “Fed nominee Warsh filings detail vast wealth, far exceeding past chairs,” April 14, 2026. cnbc.com
¹⁶ CoinDesk, “The Next Fed Chair Has a Crypto Portfolio: Here’s Everything That’s In It,” April 14, 2026. coindesk.com
¹⁷ CNBC, “Warsh pushes his plan for ‘regime change’ at Senate hearing: Analysis,” April 21, 2026. cnbc.com
¹⁸ CNBC, “Trump Fed pick Kevin Warsh clears key Senate hurdle, teeing up final vote,” April 29, 2026. cnbc.com
¹⁹ On-chain data sourced from Glassnode and CryptoQuant, April 2026. Price data via CoinGlass and Yahoo Finance.
²⁰ Fidelity Digital Assets, “Getting Off Zero: Evaluating Bitcoin in 2026,” March 25, 2026.
²¹ Bitbo / SoSoValue, “Bitcoin ETFs Pull $2B in April, Best Month of 2026,” May 2026. bitbo.io
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