Utilities Typically Outperform During Periods of Declining Interest Rates

In the current interest rate environment, the Bank of Canada has already implemented three rate cuts in 2024, with more reductions expected in the coming months. As interest rates decline, fixed income yields also fall, prompting investors to seek alternative sources of stable income. This trend is particularly beneficial for high-yield dividend equities like utilities. Historically, this relationship has acted as a tailwind for utilities stocks as they outperform during periods of interest rate cutting. Below shows periods of interest rate decreases, and how the S&P / TSX 60 Index and Solactive Canada Utility Index (UTES Index) have performed during those times.

Zooming in on 2024, since markets started to price in June’s Bank of Canada overnight rate cuts, utilities have shown their inverse relationship to interest rates. As rates continue to come down, we expect utilities to grow higher.

Investing in the utilities sectors can offer a unique combination of stability, income, and growth potential—increasingly attractive qualities in uncertain market environments.

Why Invest in Utilities?

  • Defensive sector. Utilities are often considered defensive investments due to their resilience, even during economic downturns. The demand for their essential services remains steady, even amid market volatility. Unlike other sectors, which are prone to cyclical fluctuations, these industries benefit from inelastic revenue streams. This stability offers a degree of protection against the broader market’s ups and downs, making them a reliable choice for investors seeking to mitigate risks during challenging times.³
  • Stable revenues. Due to the essential nature of the services they provide, the revenue for most utilities is driven by long-term contracts, which offer consistent and predictable cash flows. For example, pipeline operators tend to derive most of their income from extended contracts that are indexed to inflation. This ensures stable income even as economic conditions fluctuate.⁴
  • High dividends. Utility companies are known for consistently paying high dividends to investors, a direct result of their reliable cash flows. Unlike sectors that must allocate significant resources to R&D or marketing, these companies primarily invest in maintaining and expanding essential infrastructure like electrical grids, pipeline networks, and telecom lines. This focus allows them to distribute more of their free cash flow as dividends, making them attractive options for income-seeking investors.⁵
  • Lower volatility. The stable revenue of the utilities sector typically provide lower stock price volatility compared to other equities, thanks to the inherent stability of their businesses. For example, a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report found that in 2023, the telecommunications sector alone contributed $80.8 billion to the Canadian GDP (up over 5% from $76.7 billion in 2022) and supported nearly 782,000 jobs (up 8% from 724,000 a year earlier). This steady economic performance underscores the sector’s resilience, providing investors with a more predictable and stable investment option in a fluctuating market.⁶
  • Interest rate sensitivity. While the utilities sector may have lower stock price volatility, they are highly sensitive to interest rate changes due to their capital-intensive nature. As borrowing costs decrease, these companies often see an increase in profitability. With the Bank of Canada lowering its key interest rate in now back-to-back cuts (and a growing consensus amongst policymakers for additional rate cuts at future Bank of Canada meetings), Canadian utility and real estate stocks are expected to receive some of the biggest boosts from a lower rate environment.⁷ ⁸ ⁹

Investing in utilities with UTES ETF

Are you looking for investments with low volatility and stable revenue? Interested in ways to mitigate risks for your portfolio during challenging times?

The debut of the Evolve Canadian Utilities Enhanced Yield Index Fund (UTES ETF) reflects our commitment to offering investors exposure to the top Canadian utilities companies. By focusing on these sectors, the fund capitalizes on stable cash flows and high dividend yields  while also positioning investors to benefit from ongoing energy infrastructure developments and the ever-increasing demand for robust communication networks.²

With UTES, you get simplified access to the top 10 Canadian utility companies in one accessible investment vehicle. UTES employs an active covered call program to give investors tax-efficient enhanced yield, and modest leverage (25%) to provide magnified returns.

For more information on UTES ETF, visit our website at evolveetfs.com/UTES.

 

Sources

  1. Oberti, G., “Global M&A Trends in Energy, Utilities & Resources,” PwC, June 25, 2024; https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/services/deals/trends/energy-utilities-resources.html
  2. Raghunath, A., “Pipeline to Prosperity: Invest in Enbridge and Pembina Stock,” Yahoo Finance, July 12, 2024; https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/pipeline-prosperity-invest-enbridge-pembina-205000232.html
  3. Bouw, B., “Why this money manager is buying utilities and pipelines while cutting back on banks and tech,” The Globe and Mail, March 1, 2024; https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/globe-advisor/advisor-funds/article-why-this-money-manager-is-buying-utilities-and-pipelines-while-cutting/
  4. Raghunath, A., “Pipeline to Prosperity: Invest in Enbridge and Pembina Stock,” Yahoo Finance, July 12, 2024; https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/pipeline-prosperity-invest-enbridge-pembina-205000232.html
  5. “The Outlook for Canadian Telecoms,” Advisor.ca, June 24, 2024; https://www.advisor.ca/podcasts/the-outlook-for-canadian-telecoms
  6. “Telecommunications Sector Directly Contributes Nearly $81 Billion to Canadian Economy and Supports Nearly 782,000 Jobs Across Industries, New Report Shows,” Canadian Telecommunications Association, June 17, 2024; https://canadatelecoms.ca/news/telecommunications-sector-directly-contributes-nearly-81-billion-dollars-to-canadian-economy-and-supports-nearly-782000-jobs-across-industries-new-report-shows/
  7. Rendell, M. et al, “Bank of Canada lowers key interest rate to 4.5%, delivering back-to-back cuts,” The Globe and Mail, July 24, 2024; https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-live-updates-july/
  8. Rendell, M., “‘Clear consensus’ among Bank of Canada policymakers on need for more rate cuts if inflation keeps easing,” The Globe and Mail, August 7, 2024; https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-bank-of-canada-interest-rate-cut-july-minutes/
  9. Smith, F., “Canadian investors eye utilities, real estate stocks as BoC cuts rates,” Reuters, June 12, 2024; https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/canadian-investors-eye-utilities-real-estate-stocks-boc-cuts-rates-2024-06-12/

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