The weight-loss drug market is heating up as pharmaceutical giants scramble to capture a share of this lucrative healthcare sector. Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, long-time leaders in obesity treatments, now face formidable competition from Roche. Recent developments signal a potential shakeup in market dominance, promising a dynamic landscape for investors and patients alike. 

Roche, a relative newcomer in the weight-loss arena, has made significant strides and announced promising advances in their obesity drug trials in July. CEO Thomas Schinecker announced that Roche’s multiple experimental obesity drug candidates demonstrated “best in disease potential” in early-stage trials. The company’s acquisition of Carmot Therapeutics has bolstered its position, with trial data showing a 6.1% weight loss within four weeks for its once-daily pill, CT-996. This oral alternative could appeal to patients averse to injections, further intensifying the competition¹. 

Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, despite their recent setbacks, remain resilient. Novo Nordisk’s shares dipped 4%, and Eli Lilly’s fell 3% following Roche’s announcements. However, both companies continue to lead with established products like Wegovy and Zepbound. Analysts suggest that while these firms face increased rivalry, their extensive pipelines and market experience position them well for sustained growth² .

The obesity drug market, estimated to reach $200 billion by 2030, is witnessing a pivotal moment³ . Roche’s entry with innovative oral treatments could democratize access and enhance patient adherence, presenting a significant challenge to established players. Yet, the robust portfolios of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly ensure that the competition will remain fierce, driving advancements and potentially leading to more effective solutions for obesity management. 

In this evolving landscape, strategic decisions and timely innovations will be key. Investors and stakeholders should watch closely as these pharmaceutical titans vie for supremacy, each aiming to deliver cutting-edge treatments in the burgeoning weight-loss market. 

Pfizer Inc

Pfizer is advancing a once-daily weight loss pill to mid-stage clinical trials this year, a move that could revolutionize the obesity treatment market currently dominated by injectable drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk⁴. Pfizer’s pill aims to boost patient compliance by offering a more convenient alternative to injections. Pfizer had previously halted a trial for a twice-daily version due to side effects but now reports promising early results for the once-daily pill, with no significant liver issues observed in over 1,400 healthy adults⁵ .

The new pill could capture a substantial market share if it proves effective and safe, potentially controlling a third of the obesity drug market. This non-invasive option could attract a wider patient base, including those hesitant about injectables. Pfizer projects that its pill could reach the market by 2028, with the potential to generate billions in annual revenue⁶ . This development comes as Pfizer seeks to diversify its portfolio beyond COVID-19 products, aiming to tap into the growing $150 billion annual obesity treatment market⁷.  

Eli Lilly & Co

Eli Lilly & Co. has agreed to acquire U.S. autoimmune, cardiovascular, and metabolic diseases-drug maker Morphic Holding Inc. for approximately US$3.2 billion, leveraging proceeds from its obesity drug Zepbound to expand its experimental pipeline. This deal underscores Lilly’s commitment to immunology, a core focus for CEO Dave Ricks, who has pledged to pursue early-stage acquisitions. 

Morphic currently has three drugs for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease in mid-stage clinical trials and is developing a selective oral small molecule inhibitor targeting inflammatory bowel disease. Lilly, already active in this area with its FDA-approved Omvoh injection for ulcerative colitis, aims to enhance early-stage treatment and combination therapy options for patients through this acquisition. 

Lilly’s Chief Scientific Officer Daniel Skovronsky highlighted the potential of Morphic’s pill to treat ulcerative colitis earlier and provide combination treatments for more severe cases⁸. 

LIFE ETF: An Easy Way to Invest in Global Healthcare

Investing in ETFs can be one way to add cutting-edge healthcare to your portfolio. 

Evolve Global Healthcare Enhanced Yield Fund (LIFE ETF) provides investors with exposure to twenty global blue-chip companies in the healthcare industry, with a covered call strategy that is actively managed to provide increased yield potential while helping mitigate risk. For more information about the Evolve Global Healthcare Enhanced Yield Fund or any of Evolve ETF’s lineup of exchange-traded funds, please visit our website or contact us. 

Portfolio Strategy and Activity

For the month, Roche Holding AG made the largest contribution to the Fund, followed by Danaher Corporation and Thermo Fisher Scientific. The largest detractors to performance for the month were Eli Lilly & Co, followed by Merck & Co and Novo Nordisk A/S. 

 

Sources

  1. Gilchrist, K., “Wegovy rival to be part of a suite of weight loss drugs, Roche CEO says following positive trial results,” CNBC, July 25, 2024; https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/roche-wegovy-obesity-rival-to-be-part-of-a-suite-of-weight-loss-drugs.html
  2. Gilchrist, K., “Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly shares slide on new obesity drug trial from Roche,” CNBC, July 17, 2024; https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/17/novo-nordisk-eli-lilly-shares-slide-on-roches-obesity-drug-trial-.html
  3. Gilchrist, K., “Obesity drug industry could be worth $200 billion within the decade, says Barclays, as market valuations grow,” CNBC, April 28, 2024; https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/28/obesity-drugs-to-be-worth-200-billion-in-next-10-years-barclays-says.html
  4. Garde, D., “Pfizer Advances Weight-Loss Pill in Race to Lucrative Market,” Bloomberg, July 11, 2024; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/pfizer-advances-weight-loss-pill-in-race-to-lucrative-market
  5. Erman, M. & Mishra, M., “Pfizer moves forward with once-daily weight-loss pill,” Reuters, July 11, 2024; https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-moves-forward-with-once-daily-weight-loss-drug-2024-07-11/
  6. Garde, D., “Pfizer Advances Weight-Loss Pill in Race to Lucrative Market,” Bloomberg, July 11, 2024; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-11/pfizer-advances-weight-loss-pill-in-race-to-lucrative-market
  7. Erman, M. & Mishra, M., “Pfizer moves forward with once-daily weight-loss pill,” Reuters, July 11, 2024; https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-moves-forward-with-once-daily-weight-loss-drug-2024-07-11/
  8. Kresge, N., “Lilly agrees to buy U.S. biotech Morphic in US$3.2 billion deal,” BNN Bloomberg, July 8, 2024; https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/company-news/2024/07/08/lilly-agrees-to-buy-us-biotech-morphic-in-32-billion-deal/

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