General Industry Update

Electric vehicles (EVs) are hitting a tipping point globally, with 31 countries surpassing the crucial 5% mark in new car sales, marking the beginning of mass adoption. This milestone, identified by Bloomberg Green’s analysis, indicates a significant shift in consumer preferences towards EVs. The trend is evident across four continents, with Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia emerging as some of the fastest-growing markets.

Thailand and Turkey exemplify this shift, with Thailand becoming Southeast Asia’s EV growth leader, going from 5% of new car sales in Q1 2023 to nearly 13% by last quarter. Likewise, Turkey is rapidly climbing the ranks to become Europe’s fourth-largest EV market by Q3 2023. Factors driving this surge include opening domestic EV factories and releasing competitive models like the Turkish-made T10X SUV, challenging Tesla’s dominance. However, the United States still lags behind comparatively due to preferences for larger vehicles and range anxiety, despite crossing the 5% tipping point in 2021.

Overall, falling battery prices, expanded charging infrastructure, and improved performance continue to drive the competitiveness of EVs, with global sales reaching 12% in Q4 2023.

Analysts foresee a 22% increase in global EV sales this year. With two-thirds of global auto sales coming from countries past the tipping point, significant markets like India, Indonesia, and Poland are on the cusp. Similarly, initiatives in South America, notably in Brazil, could ignite widespread EV adoption.¹

These projections of growth track with data from JATO Dynamics, which suggest that in 2024, three significant trends are set to drive the transition to EVs: a surge in supply, the rise of flexible usership options, and the expansion of digital platforms.

Lower prices and increased availability could incentivize EV adoption, addressing the primary barrier of cost. Additionally, flexible usership models like leasing and subscriptions offer affordability and freedom, appealing particularly to first-time EV buyers and those concerned about depreciation and charging infrastructure. Digital platforms play a crucial role in educating consumers about the realities of EV ownership and alleviating their concerns about EV adoption, such as range anxiety.

The JATO Dynamics findings indicate that 16% of all cars registered in Europe last year were electric cars, indicating growing consumer appetite. The data shows that 40% of European consumers planning to purchase a new vehicle in the next year are considering EVs or hybrids, with 37% more likely to consider EVs compared to a year ago.²

Company Specific Updates

Renault SA

Renault is in advanced stage talks with potential specialist partners to become the first European automaker to extract and recycle lithium and other metals from used electric EV batteries on an industrial scale. The company seeks to address concerns over Europe’s heavy dependence on China for battery materials.

Jean-Philippe Bahuaud, CEO of Renault’s environment unit, said that no European entity currently recycles used batteries in a closed-loop to produce nickel, cobalt, and lithium for new batteries. Recovering metals from batteries offers significant cost savings, as these metals constitute up to 70% of a battery’s cost and up to 40% of a vehicle’s cost.

Renault’s Flins factory in Paris will transition entirely to producing partially recycled and reconditioned car components, aiming to repair 9,000 batteries in 2024. The company sells these batteries and other reconditioned parts at a 30% discount from the cost of new parts. Renault’s environment unit anticipates sales of €2.3 billion ($2.49 billion) and an operating margin of over 10% by 2030.³

Nvidia Corp

Nvidia is bolstering its partnerships with leading Chinese EV manufacturers, including BYD, as competition intensifies in the automotive AI sector. Chipmaker Nvidia announced that BYD (held by the Fund), which recently surpassed Tesla to become the world’s top EV producer, will integrate Nvidia’s new Drive Thor chips to enhance autonomous driving and digital capabilities in its vehicles. This collaboration extends to streamlining BYD’s manufacturing and supply chain operations, as well as developing virtual showrooms, according to Nvidia.

This partnership was highlighted during Nvidia’s GTC developer conference in San Jose, California, where several other Chinese automotive firms, including Xpeng (held by the Fund) and GAC Aion, revealed their plans to use Nvidia’s technology. These partnerships underscore the ambition of Chinese EV makers to leverage advanced technology to compete globally despite their current lack of international brand recognition and accelerate sales expansion in markets outside China.

Additionally, Nvidia announced collaborations with U.S. software company Cerence to adapt AI systems for in-car use, and with Chinese computer giant Lenovo on large language model deployment. Nvidia is also working with Soundhound to develop a voice command system for vehicles, showcasing Nvidia’s comprehensive approach to driving innovation in the automotive AI space.⁴

CARS ETF: Investing in Future Cars, Driving Our World Forward

The auto industry is undergoing the biggest transformation in generations and there is a growing demand for ways to invest in this industry.

The Evolve Automobile Innovation Index Fund (CARS ETF), is Canada’s first automobile innovation ETF. CARS takes a diversified approach to invest in the development of electric cars, self-driving cars, and automobile innovation, including in some of the world’s leading manufacturers and automobile companies. CARS is a great way to gain access to the future of the automobile and shift your investments into gear.

For more information on the Evolve Automobile Innovation Index Fund or any of Evolve ETF’s lineup of exchange-traded funds, please visit our website or contact info@evolveetfs.com.

Portfolio Strategy and Activity

For the month, Renault SA made the largest contribution to the Fund, followed by Bloom Energy Corp and Nvidia Corp. The largest detractors to performance for the month were Li Auto Inc, followed by Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC and Microvision Inc.

 

Sources

  1. Randall, T., “Electric Cars Pass the Tipping Point to Mass Adoption in 31 Countries,” Bloomberg, March 28, 2024; https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/electric-cars-pass-adoption-tipping-point-in-31-countries
  2. Bhatia, A., “Why market changes will drive the transition to electric this year,” Automotive News Europe, March 26, 2024; https://europe.autonews.com/guest-columnist/why-market-changes-will-drive-transition-electric-year
  3. “Renault in advanced talks with partners to recycle EV batteries,” Reuters, March 26, 2024; https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/renault-advanced-talks-recycle-ev-batteries-partners
  4. White, J., “Nvidia expands ties with Chinese EV makers as auto AI race heats up,” Reuters, March 18, 2024; https://www.reuters.com/technology/nvidia-expands-ties-with-chinese-ev-makers-auto-ai-race-heats-up-2024-03-18/

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