The materials and mining industry experienced a strong year in 2025. Per J.P. Morgan Private Bank, gold delivered its strongest single-year performance since 1979,1 copper posted its largest annual gain since 2009,2 and SIPRI reported that global defence budgets reached a record US$2.9 trillion3 — the eleventh consecutive year of growth — driving demand for the steel, titanium, and specialty alloys necessary for the rearmament cycle. Infrastructure spending from the United States to Europe continued to underpin demand for steel and industrial metals, while tariff policy reshuffled global supply chains in favour of domestic producers. The world is being rewired, and that rewiring runs through materials.
AI Infrastructure is a Metals Story Before it is a Chip Story
The top five hyperscalers (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle) are on track to spend US$805 billion on infrastructure in 2026 alone, with Morgan Stanley projecting that figure climbs to US$1.1 trillion by 2027.4 None of it gets built without metal: copper for power distribution, steel for structural framing, and aluminium for cooling systems. The grid upgrades required to feed these facilities are more metal-intensive still. The real picks-and-shovels play in AI is in materials.
Electrification and the Energy Transition
According to the International Copper Association, an electric vehicle uses three to four times more copper than a conventional car, and that’s before a single charging port is built. Charging infrastructure alone will require an additional 978,000 tonnes of copper by 2040.5 As the IEA has documented, solar, wind, and grid-scale storage are far more mineral-intensive per unit of energy than the fossil fuel infrastructure they replace.6 Mine disruptions in Indonesia and the DRC are already squeezing refined copper supply, per International Copper Study Group data reported by Shanghai Metal Market.7 Demand is accelerating. Supply is not.
Defence Rearmament Cycle
At the June 2025 NATO Summit in The Hague, allies committed to spending 5% of GDP on defence by 2035.8 The metals dimension is rarely discussed: every jet, missile, naval vessel, and armoured vehicle depends on specialty titanium alloys, high-grade steel, and nickel-based superalloys. All materials sourced from a narrow group of aerospace-grade producers. The rearmament cycle is one of the most durable and underappreciated tailwinds in global materials today.
Onshoring, Infrastructure Spending, and Tariffs
Washington has handed domestic producers a structural advantage. In June 2025, the Trump administration doubled tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%,9 then extended the same 50% rate to copper that August.10 Import competition falls, domestic mills run closer to full capacity, and new investment follows.11 The World Steel Association estimates global steel demand will reach 1,773 million tonnes in 2026, with Europe contributing a long-awaited recovery in demand after years of contraction.12
Gold’s Structural Bid: Central Banks and Debasement
The World Gold Council reported that total demand exceeded 5,000 tonnes for the first time on record, with the price setting 53 new all-time highs during the year.13 With record demand, annual gold supply only grew by 1%.13 J.P. Morgan Private Bank noted that gold scarcity and dollar diversification have made gold the go-to hedge against currency erosion and geopolitical risk.1 Central banks bought 863 tonnes in 2025 alone, extending a multi-year run of sovereign accumulation.13
Why BASE? Diversified Exposure Across All Five Themes
The five themes above are not correlated with one another. Gold is driven by macro risk and central bank behaviour. Copper and aluminum are driven by the energy transition and AI infrastructure build-out. Aerospace and defence metals are driven by geopolitical rearmament. Steel and chemicals benefit from onshoring and tariff-driven domestic demand. A fund spanning all these sectors naturally absorbs what a single-commodity position cannot: when one theme pauses, others continue.
The Evolve Global Materials and Mining Enhanced Yield Index ETF (BASE) is purpose-built to capture this breadth of exposure through an ex-Canadian portfolio, providing global diversification beyond domestic materials and mining names. Its active covered call overlay, applied to up to 33% of holdings, adds a tax-efficient monthly income stream that may prove especially valuable when markets turn volatile. With supply constraints, geopolitical risk, and technological transformation reshaping global commodity markets all at once, BASE offers a single, index-based way to participate across the entire opportunity set.
Sources
1. J.P. Morgan Private Bank, “Is it a golden era for gold?”, February 2026. https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/markets-and-investing/is-it-a-golden-era-for-gold
2. Mining.com, “Copper’s tight supply and tariff risks set for a volatile 2026.” December 22, 2025. https://www.mining.com/coppers-tight-supply-and-tariff-risks-set-for-a-volatile-2026/
3. SIPRI, “Global military spending rise continues as European and Asian expenditures surge.” April 27, 2026. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2026/global-military-spending-rise-continues-european-and-asian-expenditures-surge
4. Benzinga / Yahoo Finance, “David Sacks Says AI Could Drive 75% Of US GDP Growth As Morgan Stanley Sees Big Tech AI Capex Surging Past $800 Billion In 2026.” May 6, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/david-sacks-says-ai-could-220110765.html
5. International Copper Association, “Copper: The Material of Choice for Vehicle Manufacturers.” https://internationalcopper.org/resource/copper-the-material-of-choice-for-vehicle-manufacturers/
6. International Energy Agency, Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024. May 2024. https://www.iea.org/reports/global-critical-minerals-outlook-2024
7. Shanghai Metal Market, “ICSG: Global Refined Copper Market to Face a Supply Deficit of 150,000 mt Next Year.” October 8, 2025. https://news.metal.com/newscontent/103560248
8. NATO, The Hague Summit Declaration, June 25, 2025. https://www.nato.int/en/about-us/official-texts-and-resources/official-texts/2025/06/25/the-hague-summit-declaration
9. The White House, “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Increases Section 232 Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum.” June 3, 2025. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/06/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-increases-section-232-tariffs-on-steel-and-aluminum/
10. The White House, “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Takes Action to Address the Threat to National Security from Imports of Copper.” July 30, 2025. https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-takes-action-to-address-the-threat-to-national-security-from-imports-of-copper/
11. Nucor 8-K (Apr 27, 2026), SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000073309/000119312526182332/d150975dex991.htm
12. World Steel Association, Short Range Outlook, October 13, 2025. https://worldsteel.org/media/press-releases/2025/worldsteel-short-range-outlook-october-2025/
13. World Gold Council, Gold Demand Trends: Q4 and Full Year 2025. January 29, 2026. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2025
Disclaimers
Published May 19, 2026.
Evolve Funds Group Inc. is the investment fund manager and portfolio manager. Evolve Global Materials and Mining Enhanced Yield Index ETF (“BASE”) is offered by Evolve Funds Group Inc. and distributed through authorized dealers.
The information contained herein is a general description and is not intended to be specific investment advice to any particular investor nor intended to be investment or tax advice. You should not act or rely on the information contained herein without seeking the advice of an appropriate professional advisor. The information contained herein is intended for informational purposes as a summary only, does not constitute an offer to sell any securities or a legally binding obligation, it is qualified entirely by, and should be read in conjunction with, the more detailed information appearing in the prospectuses found on the Evolve Funds Group Inc website at https://evolveetfs.com/
Commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with exchange traded funds (ETFs). Please read the prospectus before investing. ETFs are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated.
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